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Andrew Rogers
Patriots vs. Bills Point Spread: NFL Predictions, Week 4 Odds
The first three weeks of the New England Patriots’ season has featured plenty of drama – but not a lot of competition.While it isn’t a shock that the Patriots are still undefeated – though the +89 point differential is an eye-opener – the Bills have been one of the league’s early-season stunners, off to their best start since 2011.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Given how dominant the Patriots have been so far this season, it’s not unusual to see them sitting as seven-point road favourites against the Bills. And New England has been a strong betting play in similar circumstances in recent years, having covered three of their past four games as a road fave of seven or more points. The Bills, on the other hand, are 0-4 ATS in their previous four games as a home underdog of 7+ points, scoring just 38 total points in that span.
The total for Sunday’s encounter is on the low side at 42.5, a byproduct of the Pats and Bills ranking first and fifth, respectively, in total defence. And both teams have put together some impressive under stretches, with New England 11-4 to the under in its previous 15 games and Buffalo 5-1 to the under in its last five. The teams have also finished below the total in five of their past seven head-to-head meetings dating back to the 2014 season.
New England Patriots
The degree of difficulty rises significantly for the Patriots in Week 4 after they had little trouble dispatching an overmatched Jets team using its third-string quarterback. In addition to facing one of the toughest defences in the league, New England will do so without the services of fullback James Develin, who was placed on injured reserve earlier this week. The Pats ranked near the bottom of the league in rushing the last time Develin dealt with a long-term injury.
Buffalo Bills
It isn’t just the defensive dominance that has the Bills sitting atop the league perch with a 3-0 record – the offence has been humming, as well. Buffalo enters Week 4 ranked eighth in total offence and has racked up the fifth-most rushing yards in the league so far. And while that hasn’t translated into the points the way the Bills might like (they rank 15th in scoring at 22 points per game), continued success in that area should yield more positive results.
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BUF