Giants vs. Saints Point Spread: NFL Week 4 Odds, Prediction

Andrew Rogers | Updated Sep 30, 2021

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones

The New York Giants’ season is quickly spinning out of control as they seek their first win of the season Sunday afternoon at New Orleans.

AT
October 03, 2021, 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Pointspread +7.5 -115
Moneyline +300
Over / Under o +43

26%

Betting Action

74%

Pointspread -7.5 -105
Moneyline -366
Over / Under u +43

26%

Betting Action

74%

The G-Men are still smarting from a humbling 17-14 home loss to an Atlanta Falcons team not expected to compete in 2021, and are considerable road underdogs this weekend against a Saints team that has yet to play a close game this season, coming off an impressive 28-13 road victory over New England.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Being on the other side of the -7 hook hasn’t scared Sports Interaction bettors off the Saints, who are seeing 82 percent of the public action ATS. But spreads this large haven’t been kind to New Orleans at Ceasars Superdome in recent years; they’re just 8-3 SU and 4-7 ATS in their last 11 home games as a fave of 7+ points. The Giants, on the other hand, are a solid 8-4 against the spread in their last 12 when receiving a touchdown or more on the road.

The totals betting slant isn’t quite as dramatic as the ATS side, but it’s still decisive with 73 percent of bettors siding with the O42 (-110). The Giants have come in under the number in nine of their previous 13 games as a road underdog of 7+ points, scoring fewer than 20 points in all but three of those contests. The Saints are also trending toward the Under, having surpassed the total in just two of their past seven home games.

New York Giants

The Giants have been able to move the football through three games, ranked 17th in passing yards and tied for 11th in rushing output. They’re also inside the top-10 in third-down conversion rate (44.7 percent). So why do they rank just 24th in points per game? The red zone efficiency – or lack thereof – is the main culprit, with New York having scored a touchdown on just 33.3 percent of their trips inside the opponents’ 20-yard line.

New Orleans Saints

The Giants could learn a thing or two from the Saints when it comes to making the most of their trips down the field. New Orleans has converted 88.9 percent of its red-zone trips into TDs through the first three games of the season, second only to the San Francisco 49ers. And while that has been a trademark of the Saints’ offence – they finished fifth in red-zone success rate in 2020 – that they’re doing it in their first year without Drew Brees is particularly notable.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Giants vs. Saints?

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