Dolphins vs. Patriots Point Spread: NFL Week 1 Odds, Prediction

Jeremy Perry | Updated Sep 07, 2021

The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots square off in their season-opener at Gillette Stadium in what figures to be an early-season temperature check.

September 12, 2021, 4:25 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
Pointspread +3.5 -120
Moneyline +146
Over / Under o +43.5


Betting Action


Pointspread -3.5 +100
Moneyline -175
Over / Under u +43.5


Betting Action


The Dolphins ended up falling one game shy of the postseason in 2020 despite having a 10-6 overall record. The Patriots didn’t have much luck either, finishing with a 7-9 record and missing the playoffs.

The Dolphins have since fully committed to their young quarterback as the future of this franchise and he appears to be the key to their success as the rest of the team looks ready to go. As for the Patriots, they have moved on from Cam Newton and have now entered the Mac Jones era. Can they get back to their winning ways?

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Being the underdog seems to bode well for the Miami Dolphins as they won five of their last nine matchups in that role. Miami also seems to end up in high scoring games, they had ten contests go over 44 combined points in 2020.

The Patriots put together a 7-9-0 ATS record during the 2020 season. They also compiled a 3-4 ATS record in their last seven games when entering the matchup as 2.5-point favorites. Similar to Miami, New England has gone under 44 combined points in nine of their last 16 games.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are coming into the first season with Tua Tagovailoa as the starting quarterback. He got a couple games under his belt towards the end of the 2020 season, but he somewhat flopped as the Dolphins turned back to Ryan Fitzpatrick at times. Since then, the organization has gotten him more reps throughout the preseason and added playmakers such as Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle. Assuming Tagovailoa takes the next step in his development, this Dolphins team could become a serious player in the AFC.

Their defense doesn’t seem to be an issue, they have playmakers, a solid offensive line and good coaching. Tua just has to really emerge as a quality starter for them to make the playoffs.

New England Patriots

The Patriots have finally concluded their Newton experiment by releasing him from their roster. That means that another former Alabama quarterback will be getting to start in this matchup as Mac Jones was able to win the job during the preseason.

It was clear that the Patriots developed quite a talented running back room, led by Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, but they also saw flashes of star potential from their wideout Jakobi Meyers. It should also be noted that this New England squad splurged in free agency, grabbing Matt Judon, Hunter Henry, Nelson Agholor and Jonnu Smith just to name a few. There are weapons now. The question is will this offense be better or was Tom Brady really the difference-maker?

Keep in mind the Patriots will be without star corner Stephon Gilmore in this game as he’s out for the first six games.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Dolphins vs. Patriots?