The Dolphins faced an incredible spread against the Patriots last week, and still didn’t come close to covering. They’ll get another chance as they find themselves as a three-touchdown underdog Sunday vs. the host Cowboys.
The Dolphins continued their full-on fire sale this week, trading Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a 2020 first-round pick.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The opening spread for this game was already astronomical at Dallas -15 – but it has climbed steadily since, all the way to -21.5. It’s the first time in nearly eight years that the Cowboys have been favoured by more than 14 points, and just the third time since the start of the 2008 season that they’ve even given away seven or more points. The Dolphins are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games, and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. teams with winning home records.
While bettors wait to see where the spread will land by kickoff, the total has actually held steady at 47. Miami has converted the under in four of its previous five games following a double-digit home loss, and five of six following a straight-up defeat. Dallas, on the other hand, is riding a five-game consecutive over streak dating back to the end of last season and is a red-hot 7-2 O/U in its previous nine games at AT&T Stadium.
To wind up with a -73 point differential through the first two games of the season, plenty has to go wrong – and it certainly has for the Dolphins, who have managed just 384 yards of offence (eight teams are averaging more than that) while having produced just two scoring drives in 18 trips down the field. The defence is equally culpable, having allowed the Baltimore Ravens and Patriots to rack up more than 1,000 total yards (along with 102 points) combined.
With the Cowboys heavily favoured in their own building and dealing with the absence of No. 2 receiver Michael Gallup due to injury, expect to see plenty of Ezekiel Elliott in this one. Elliott, who narrowly avoided missing Week 1 due to a contract dispute, racked up 23 carries for 111 yards and a touchdown in Week 2 and should draw plenty of consideration for the over on his rushing yardage total against the Dolphins’ lowly run defence.