Dolphins vs. Buccaneers Point Spread: NFL Week 5 Odds, Prediction

Andrew Rogers | Updated Oct 08, 2021

Fresh off a narrow win over his former long-time team, Tom Brady has another rivalry game on tap as he leads the Buccaneers into an all-Florida encounter with the visiting Dolphins.

Miami
9-8
AT
October 10, 2021, 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay
13-4
Pointspread +11 -110
Moneyline +461
Over / Under o +48

23%

Betting Action

77%

Pointspread -11 -110
Moneyline -581
Over / Under u +48

23%

Betting Action

77%

Sunday’s matchup is a pivotal one for the Dolphins, who are tied with the Jets and Patriots at 1-3 in the AFC East – and they’re big-time underdogs against a Brady-led Bucs team that took care of business – barely – in a 19-17 triumph over New England last week.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

If this spread holds, it will mark the fifth time in Brady’s Bucs tenure that Tampa is a double-digit fave – and the previous results have been decidedly mixed, with the Bucs having gone 2-2 ATS (while winning all three comfortably). Tampa Bay has been an offensive force in those contests, averaging an incredible 37.8 points over that four-game span. Miami has proven to be a tough out in these situations, having gone 5-1 ATS in its last six when getting 10+ points.

Sports Interaction bettors aren’t scared off by the massive total, with more than three-quarters of them leaning toward the home team to cover. Yet, the trend of public Over picks hasn’t carried over to this game, with 62 percent opting for the U48 at -110. Tampa Bay is 8-3 O/U in its past 11 games as a favourite, including three straight Overs as a home fave. Miami is also trending in that direction, having gone 6-1 ATS in its previous seven as an underdog of 7+ points.

Miami Dolphins

Is this the week that the Dolphins’ moribund offence finally breaks out? Aside from a 28-point outburst in a Week 3 loss to Indianapolis, Miami has struggled mightily to put up points (ranked 31st in the NFL at 15.5 per game), and a wonky passing game (173.8 yards per game, 30th overall) is largely to blame. QB Jacoby Brissett will look to make inroads against a Tampa Bay defence that has allowed a league-high 327.5 yards per game through the air.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs might be a sieve in pass defence, but they make up for it with an unrelenting offensive attack led by the ageless Brady. He has racked up 1,356 yards and 10 touchdown passes through the first four games, and has even added a rushing score for good measure. And he has spread the wealth so far, with four players (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown) having recorded between 21 and 30 targets to date.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Dolphins vs. Buccaneers?

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