Colts vs. Texans Point Spread: NFL Week 1 Odds, Prediction

Nik Kowalski | Updated Sep 07, 2022

The Matt Ryan era in Indianapolis begins with an AFC South bout as the Colts head down to Houston to face off with Davis Mills and the Texans.

September 11, 2022, 1:00 PM ET
NRG Stadium
Pointspread -7 -116
Moneyline -324
Over / Under o +46


Betting Action


Pointspread +7 -104
Moneyline +266
Over / Under u +46


Betting Action


Davis Mills’ rookie season was a pleasant surprise for Houston, showing the Texans that once they moved on from Deshaun Watson at quarterback, they could roll with Mills, a 2021 third-round pick. Now Houston’s set on improving from last season’s 4-13 record.

Indianapolis, on the other hand, went into 2022 with a plan of moving on from Carson Wentz. Last year the Colts suffered a late collapse that left them with a 9-8 record and out of the playoffs. Then the 37-year-old Matt Ryan fell into their laps and Indianapolis became AFC South favourites again.

Kickoff at NRG Stadium on Sunday is at 1 p.m. EDT with the Colts a 7-point favourite on the road and the over-under at 46 on the NFL odds.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Colts swept the Texans a year ago in their two divisional meetings by a combined score of 61-3. In their first meeting, a 31-0 Colts victory, both Mills and since-departed quarterback Tyrod Taylor played for Houston and neither passed for 50 yards.

The Texans finished the season 8-9 against the spread while Indianapolis went 10-7. Head-to-head, the Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight clashes with Houston and 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games overall. Houston’s won outright in just one of their last eight home games. The under is also 6-0 in the last six Colts–Texans games played at Houston.

Indianapolis Colts

On paper, Indianapolis has a star at every positional group. Jonathan Taylor, the 2021 rushing champ, is back, as well as third-year receiver Michael Pittman who’s broken out as a No. 1 receiver. But aside from these two, the Colts lack of reliable playmakers may hold them back from being a legit AFC contender.

On defence, Shaquille (Darius) Leonard remains out after getting back surgery in the offseason but defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and slot cornerback Kenny Moore are ready to go as well as free agent addition Stephon Gilmore, the 2019 Defensive Player of the Year. Last season the Colts were just outside the top 10 in points allowed, but should get inside that mark this year.

Houston Texans

Unfortunately for Mills, the Texans didn’t address a glaring need of offensive playmakers. Outside of veteran receiver Brandin Cooks, the offensive weapons in Houston are tough to come by. For example, fourth-round pick Dameon Pierce is Houston’s new starting running back. Nico Collins, Phillip Dorsett, and tight end Brevin Jordan make up Houston’s starting pass-catchers.

Houston allowed the second-most yards a season ago at 384.4 per game, and while new head coach Lovie Smith is expected to help in that area… the Texans defensive personnel is only slightly improved. The club selected LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. with their third-overall pick and he’ll be a day-one starter for the team.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Colts vs. Texans?