Colts vs. Bills Point Spread: NFL Pre-Season Week 1 Odds, Prediction

Nik Kowalski | Updated Aug 09, 2022

The Super Bowl-favourite Buffalo Bills begin the preseason at home on Saturday against the Indianapolis Colts.

AT
August 13, 2022, 4:00 PM ET
New Era Field
Buffalo
2-1

When Matt Ryan takes the field for the Indianapolis Colts, it’ll be the sixth-consecutive season with a different starting quarterback in Indianapolis. Ryan and the Colts make their preseason debut up north in Buffalo, facing off with the Super Bowl-favourite Bills.

Quarterback Josh Allen is the star in Buffalo after being a high first-round pick in 2018. Allen’s on a $258 million contract that locks him in through the 2028 season. Now the goal for Buffalo is to make a Super Bowl a reality, and get some revenge for last year’s playoff exit when they fell in a heartbreaker to Kansas City without touching the ball on offence during overtime.

Kickoff between the Colts and Bills goes Saturday at 4 p.m. ET, with the Bills 3.5-point favourites to win at home and the over-under listed at 34.0 on the NFL odds.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Both teams last season fared well against the spread. Each covered 10 times, then lost against the spread seven times. Buffalo also played two extra games last season (playoffs). finishing 10-7-2 ATS overall.

Head-to-head, the under’s been the trendy play. In the last 10 Colts-Bills games, the under is 7-3 with neither club averaging over 22 points an outing. These teams have met in the last two seasons too, albeit Philip Rivers and Carson Wentz led the Colts into Buffalo in those respective games. The Bills edged out Indy 27-24 in the 2021 Wild-Card round and then the Colts had a dominant 41-15 win last season behind a five-touchdown game from Jonathan Taylor.

Indianapolis Colts

Ryan’s arguably the most important addition Indianapolis made in the offseason, or one could argue moving on from Wentz a few weeks earlier, but the Colts made other splashes too. They acquired Pro Bowl defensive end Yannick Ngakoue in a trade with Vegas and snatched up 2019 Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore to start at cornerback.

In front of Ryan is one of the league’s top offensive lines led by Quenton Nelson and Ryan Kelly, and then of course the 2021 rushing leader in Taylor is back for his third NFL season. Michael Pittman is the guy to watch at receiver, breaking out with 1,082 yards last year in his second season.

Buffalo Bills

With 4,407 passing yards (and another 763 on the ground) to go with 42 total touchdowns last season, Allen cemented himself as a superstar franchise quarterback. His presence alone makes Buffalo one of the best in the AFC. Then weapons like Stefon Diggs and and Gabriel Davis advance Buffalo to Super Bowl favourite territory.

In the offseason, the Bills went all-in and signed two-time Super Bowl champ Von Miller to a six-year deal. Miller has 115 career sacks and is a three-time All-Pro at 33-years-old. Buffalo also added pass-catchers Jamison Crowder and O.J. Howard — on paper they could be the NFL’s best offence.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Colts vs. Bills?

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