Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Super Bowl 55 Prediction: Player Prop Odds

Payton Matthews | Updated Feb 06, 2021

travis kelce chiefs

Bettors catch a bit of a break for this Super Bowl when projecting potential statistics because these teams also played Week 12 in Tampa.

AT
February 07, 2021, 6:30 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay
11-5
Pointspread -3 -105
Moneyline -150
Over / Under o +56.5

66%

Betting Action

34%

Pointspread +3 -115
Moneyline +127
Over / Under u +56.5

66%

Betting Action

34%

Sunday’s Super Bowl 55 from Tampa, Fla., between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers has more player props available on the NFL odds than any other football game in history. Let’s break down a few of the more popular options with some picks.

Super Bowl 55 MVP Odds

Last year when the Chiefs faced the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 54 and we looked at the MVP prop, I wrote this: “Recommend a tight end as winning MVP position at +800 because of that value price, but then will hedge with Patrick Mahomes (+100) as the individual winner.”

Doubling down on the tight ends last year made a bit more sense because of the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce and 49ers’ George Kittle. They are the two best in the business. I don’t see the same value this year as while Kelce (+800) could well become the first tight end to win Super Bowl MVP honours after having the greatest single season for a tight end in history, I don’t give much shot to either Tampa Bay’s Rob Gronkowski (+6600) or Cameron Brate (+11700).

Mahomes is again the favourite, priced -110 with Tom Brady at +185 and it’s hard to recommend against a quarterback. Mahomes winning it last year was the 30th time a QB took home this award, although an argument could have been made for Chiefs running back Damien Williams (who opted out of this season). Mahomes looks to become the sixth player with multiple Super Bowl MVPs, with naturally Brady holding the record of four.

Brady didn’t win it, though, in his most recent Super Bowl following the 2018 season when the New England Patriots beat the Los Angeles Rams 13-3 in a snoozer. Pats receiver Julian Edelman did. The last defensive player to win MVP was Denver Broncos linebacker Von Miller in SB 50, and young Bucs standout linebacker Devin White might be worth a long-shot wager at +3600. He had a spectacular regular season and was all over the field in the divisional round vs. the Saints and NFC title win over the Packers. White, who missed the wild card game vs. Washington, has an over/under of 9.5 tackles.

Super Bowl 55: Mahomes vs. Brady

Bettors catch a bit of a break for this Super Bowl when projecting potential statistics because these teams also played Week 12 in Tampa, with the Chiefs winning 27-24 in a game that really wasn’t that close. Mahomes was 37-for-49 for 462 yards (season high) and three scores. He’s given over/under totals of 329.5 passing yards this time with 28.5 completions, 41.5 passing attempts and 2.5 TD passes.

Brady was 27-for-41 for 345 yards, three scores and two picks that day, although a lot of his good numbers came in the fourth quarter with the Chiefs playing essentially prevent defence with a big lead. Brady is set at over/under 300.5 passing yards, 25.5 completions, 40.5 attempts and 2.5 TD passes.

Tampa Bay coach Bruce Arians doesn’t want his 43-year-old quarterback throwing it 40 times, that’s for sure. The Bucs are going to try and run the ball with Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones to set up play-action passes. Fournette is the +170 favourite to have the most rushing yards in the game.

Brady hasn’t topped 40.5 attempts or 25.5 completions in the three playoff games so far. He topped the TD passes once. He has had some interception problems at times, and over 0.5 picks is a -180 favourite for Brady.

Mahomes is a -205 favourite to have more completions than Brady (+140), -165 favourite over Brady (+120) for more passing yards and -205 against Brady (+145) for most TD passes.  That any QB throws for more than 500 yards would pay +1400. Brady set the mark of 505 yards in losing Super Bowl 52 to the Philadelphia Eagles following the 2017 season.

For most receiving yards, Kelce is the +175 favourite followed by Tyreek Hill at +200 and then Tampa wideouts Chris Godwin (+500) and Mike Evans (+700). Hill scorched the Bucs for 269 yards and three scores on 13 catches in Week 12. He has an over/under of 89.5 yards this time. Kelce is at 97.5.

Kelce is the +625 favourite as the game’s first TD scorer with Hill at +655 and Evans +900. To score a TD anytime, Kelce is -170 and Hill -160.

Super Bowl 55 Player Prop Picks

Mahomes for MVP; Fournette as first TD scorer and leading rusher, Kelce as an anytime scorer but Hill to lead in receiving yards. Over 0.5 interceptions for Brady, but under on his completions, attempts, yards and TD passes. Over on Mahomes TD passes but not his others. Over White 9.5 tackles.

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