Buccaneers vs. Dolphins Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Prediction, Pick

Jeremy Perry | Updated Nov 14, 2017

cutler-si

Both the Buccaneers and the Dolphins were expected to contend for playoff spots in their respective conferences this season. Instead, both teams have at times looked like they quit on the season.

Tampa Bay
5-11
AT
November 19, 2017, 1:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami
6-10
Pointspread -1 -115
Moneyline -125
Over / Under o +43.5

47%

Betting Action

53%

Pointspread +1 -105
Moneyline +105
Over / Under u +43.5

47%

Betting Action

53%

The Dolphins are coming off a 45-21 loss on Monday Night Football, making it two losses of 20+ points in their last three. Can they get off the mat against the similarly-hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this spot?

Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Bucs have fared well in this series, winning four of the last five meetings while covering all five of them. They are 16-22 ATS in their last 48 as a road dog of three or less. As for the Dolphins, they are 26-25 in their last 51 as a home favorite of three or less.

Tampa Bay limps into this Week 11 matchup at 3-6 straight up and with a 2-6-1 record against the spread this season. Meanwhile, Miami is 4-5 straight up and 3-4-2 against the spread.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Things went from bad to worse for Tampa Bay when quarterback Jameis Winston went down with a shoulder injury…or did they? The Buccaneers have turned to Ryan Fitzpatrick at the position and he did enough to get them to a win last week. Fitzpatrick completed just 17-of-34 attempts for 187 yards with a touchdown and an interception in last week’s win over the New York Jets. He did that without Mike Evans, though, as he was suspended for the week. He’ll be back for this contest.

The Tampa Bay defense stepped up and kept the Jets offense from scoring more than 10 points but they will face a more difficult test on the road this week. It will be very interesting to see how the Buccaneers respond over the second half of the season. They are 0-4 on the road this season but Miami looks like a team that has quit. If the Bucs can take it to the Dolphins early, Miami might relent fairly easily as they have done recently.

Miami Dolphins

A banged up offensive line hasn’t helped the Dolphins scoring issues this season. Miami has plenty of weapons on offense but a lack of consistent protection has hurt their ability to move the ball both through the air and on the ground. Quarterback Jay Cutler has improved as the season has progressed and has thrown for nine touchdowns and just three interceptions over his last four games. However, his interception right before the half in Carolina last week was crippling. He hasn’t made many mistakes but they seem to really hurt the team when they happen.

While the Dolphins looked listless in the second half of Monday Night Football, the reality is that they are only one game out of a playoff spot. And their run defense had been stout prior to getting ripped for 294 rushing yards by Carolina. If they can cut off the Bucs ground game and force the game on Fitzpatrick’s shoulder, they should be able to get back in the win column.

Buccaneers vs Dolphins Prediction

SportsInteraction