The Bills went toe-to-toe with the Patriots in Week 4 and still one of the few teams with a winning record in the AFC. But they head to Nashville as field goal underdogs with their starting quarterback unlikely to play.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Buffalo lost 16-10 to AFC East bully New England last weekend but did cover as a 7-point home underdog. The Bills are 3-1 straight up and against the spread (ATS) heading into Week 5. They’re 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and the Under is 4-0 in their games this season.
Tennessee is coming off a 24-10 win against Atlanta last weekend as a 3.5-point road underdog. The Titans are 2-2 SU and ATS this season and 11-5 against the number in their last 16 games versus teams with winning records.
There hasn’t been much line movement with this game. Sports Interaction installed the Titans as 3-point home chalk. The spread dropped briefly to 2.5 before moving back to the field-goal mark. A shade over 60 percent of bettors are backing the Bills to cover as 3-point underdogs.
Despite the respectable records, oddsmakers aren’t buying either of these teams as Super Bowl contenders. The Bills are +4000 to win the Super Bowl while the Titans are even bigger longshots at +5000. The Bills are at +900 to win the AFC East and the Titans at +350 to win the AFC South.
Second year quarterback Josh Allen took a big hit to the head during the second half against the Patriots. He was forced to leave the game and isn’t expected to play this weekend as he continues in the concussion protocol.
Matt Barkley is expected to get the nod. The former USC standout turned the ball over twice (one INT, one fumble) in relief duty last weekend.
Losing Allen doesn’t just strip Buffalo of its best passer; he’s also a serious threat on the ground. He ran for 631 yards last season and already has 131 yards in four games this year.
Marcus Mariotta is making a push for the Titans to sign the former Heisman winner to a lucrative contract extension. The fifth-year pro has yet to turn the ball over this season, although he has been sacked 17 times in just four games.