The Buffalo Bills have struggled with consistency over the course of the last seven weeks. After starting the season 3-0, they have split their last six games. Now they’ll face Miami Dolphins team that has suddenly won two in a row. Miami has been competitive over their last five games, so they are no pushover. They even had the lead midway through the third quarter the last time these two teams met in Buffalo. Can they spring the upset or at least cover?

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Bills are 6-3 straight up and 5-3-1 against the spread this season. While they failed to cover in Cleveland last week, Buffalo is still 5-1-1 against the spread in its last seven road games. The Bills have also won four of the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams.

Meanwhile, don’t look now but the Dolphins own the longest current win streak in the AFC East following consecutive wins. Miami has also covered the point spread in five straight games, improving to 5-4 against the spread this season. The under is 6-3 in Dolphins games this season.

Buffalo Bills

For all of the chatter about how surprising it was that Buffalo was listed as an underdog against the Browns last week, they still ended up losing and failing to cover the spread. The Bills still control their path to the playoffs at 6-3, but the lack of consistency is definitely reason for concern. As many big plays as Buffalo’s defense made against Cleveland, they also gave up plenty of big plays as well.

Meanwhile, Josh Allen was just 22-of-41 for 266 yards in the loss. He continues to offer a blend of dazzling throws as well as some mind-boggling misses too. He needs more help from the ground game and he should be able to get it here. The Dolphins are ranked 30^th in the NFL in rushing yards per game allowed (146.1), so if Devin Singletary and Frank Gore can take the pressure off of Allen, the Bills probably win.

Remember that a few weeks ago, Miami had Buffalo on the ropes as the Dolphins were up five and were in the red zone, pushing for a two-score lead. A parade of mistakes and turnovers allowed the Bills to run away with it but that shows that Buffalo better take this team seriously.

Miami Dolphins

Buffalo enters this matchup at the worst possible time after Miami locked in back-to-back wins. The Dolphins are finally gaining a bit of confidence and momentum and their defense has been the biggest reason for it. Miami held the Jets and Colts to a combined average of 15.0 points in back-to-back wins. While they lost to the Bills by 10 in the first meeting back in Week 7, the Dolphins did hang around with them for most of the game before ultimately fading late. Miami also lost to Washington on a game-ending, failed two-point conversion and held a 14-0 lead in Pittsburgh. This team is not the doormat that they were earlier in the year.

The key for the Dolphins is turnovers. They’re smart in terms of penalties as they’re one of the least penalized teams in the league but in terms of giveaways, they have the third-most. If they can limit those as they have in the past couple of weeks, they’ll have a shot here.

Who Will Win Bills vs. Dolphins?

BILLS

Away

17

DOLPHINS

Home

14

Score
Predictions

Matchup