Bills vs. Chiefs Point Spread: NFL Week 5 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Oct 05, 2021

A potential playoff tiebreaker could be on the line, as Kansas City is set to take on the Buffalo Bills Sunday night.

Buffalo
11-6
AT
October 10, 2021, 8:20 PM ET
Arrowhead Stadium
Pointspread +2.5 -110
Moneyline +115
Over / Under o +57

63%

Betting Action

37%

Pointspread -2.5 -110
Moneyline -138
Over / Under u +57

63%

Betting Action

37%

Arguably the two most talented teams in the AFC face off Sunday night in NFL Week 5. This game has huge potential playoff tiebreaker implications as the Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs are 2.5-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with a total of 56.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

While last Sunday night’s matchup between the Bucs and Patriots was arguably the most-hyped game of the year because of Tom Brady’s return to New England, Bills-Chiefs is actually more important because it’s a conference game.

It’s never too early to think about playoff tiebreakers and potentially earning the No. 1 seed. Last year, the Chiefs finished 14-2 and the Bills 13-3. Kansas City earned the AFC’s top seed and lone first-round bye in large part due to a 26-17 Week 6 victory in Buffalo.

That meant the Bills had to visit Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game, which the Chiefs won 38-24 behind 325 yards passing and three scores from Patrick Mahomes. It’s quite possible the winner of Sunday’s game ends up as the AFC’s top seed again, even with the Chiefs off to a moderately surprising 2-2 start to sit last in the AFC West. At 3-1, Buffalo is tied for the AFC’s best record and leads the AFC East.

Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.

Buffalo Bills

How did Buffalo lose at home in Week 1 to a bad Pittsburgh team? The Bills have gone scorched earth since, outscoring its three opponents 118-21 to take control of the AFC East at 3-1 – the other three teams (Patriots, Dolphins, Jets) are all 1-3. Buffalo, which is -716 to win the AFC East, has become the third team since 1990 to have two shutouts in its first four games of a season, joining the 2000 Baltimore Ravens and 1991 Washington – both those clubs won the Super Bowl.

That Buffalo defence leads the league in many categories, including yards per game allowed (216.8) and points per game allowed (11.0). We will say that Buffalo has played a very easy schedule so far, beating Miami, Washington and Houston.

Josh Allen has been solid in completing 63.5 per cent of his passes for 1,055 yard, nine TDs and two picks while rushing for a TD but not quite to his MVP runner-up level of 2021. Buffalo is a +293 second-favourite to win the AFC. The Bills are 12-3 ATS in their past 15 overall.

Kansas City Chiefs

Even though Kansas City is only 2-2, it remains the +572 favourite to win Super Bowl 56 and +257 to win the AFC because the Chiefs still have the NFL’s best player in quarterback Patrick Mahomes. At his best, there’s still no one like him and that was on display Sunday as Kansas City stopped a two-game skid in a 42-30 win in Philadelphia as Mahomes had five touchdown passes. Mahomes joined Ken Stabler as the only QBs to win at least 40 of his first 50 career starts and the fifth quarterback in NFL history to register at least three touchdown passes in each of his first four games of a season.

Tyreek Hill remains the league’s most unguardable wideout and had 11 catches for 186 yards and three scores. Offence will likely never be a concern in KC, but the defence has not been good thus far as the Chiefs are allowing 31.3 points per game, second-worst in the league. KC is 1-7 ATS in its past eight at home.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Bills vs. Chiefs?

SportsInteraction