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Jeremy Perry
Bills vs. Browns Point Spread: NFL Predictions, Week 10 Odds
Fresh off another disappointing loss, the Cleveland Browns return home to host the Buffalo Bills. Despite an ugly loss to the Denver Broncos to fall to 2-6 on the season, the Browns find themselves as a 2.5-point favorite over the 6-2 Buffalo Bills. Is the wrong team favored in this spot or will the Browns finally get their act together.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The fact that Buffalo is listed as a 2.5-point underdog might actually help as they attempt to improve on their league-best 6-2 record against the spread this season. The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when listed as an underdog. The under is 6-2 in Buffalo’s first eight games of the year.
Meanwhile, Cleveland is just 2-6 SU and ATS this season. The Browns have been particular bad at home as they’ve gone 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS at FirstEnergy Stadium. Cleveland has lost its last four in a row by an average of 12.8 points per game.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills did what they needed to do to pick up a 24-9 win over the Washington Redskins last week. While it wasn’t pretty at times, Buffalo is 6-2 and suddenly within one game of top spot in the AFC East. The Bills were able to focus on running the ball against Washington with rookie running back Devin Singletary in the featured role. He had 20 carries for 95 yards and a touchdown, adding another 45 receiving yards. He has a good matchup this week against the Browns, who are giving up 141.3 rushing yards per game (third-worst mark in the NFL).
Allen has struggled with consistency all season and his 34.9 QBR is an ugly 30th among quarterbacks. However, he has been careful with interceptions, throwing five touchdowns and no picks in his last three games.
Meanwhile, there are legitimate concerns about a Buffalo run defense that has been beat up on the ground by both the Redskins and Philadelphia Eagles in their last two games. If the Bills can’t slow down running back Nick Chubb, they’re probably not going to win on Sunday.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns will enter this game with an understanding of how important it will be to get Chubb going. Chubb had 20 carries for 65 yards in last week’s 24-19 loss to Denver and he needs to lead the way as the passing game is really struggling. For the first time in a while, Browns fans are wonder whether quarterback Baker Mayfield is, in fact, the future at the position. He has struggled to consistently find open receivers all season – especially with the games on the line. In fourth quarters this season, Mayfield has just one touchdown and six interceptions.
The Browns will need to rely on Chubb here and there should be room for him to run. The Bills gave up 127 rushing yards to the Washington Redskins last week and 218 to the Eagles the week before.
Cleveland’s slim hopes of turning its season around depend entirely on getting a win at home over the Bills. They’re hoping that the Bills record has been inflated with wins over bad teams because if the Bills are as good as their record, Cleveland is likely to take another loss.
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