Bills vs. Chargers Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Prediction, Pick

Jeremy Perry | Updated Nov 15, 2017

nathan peterman

A couple of weeks ago, people were saying that the Buffalo Bills might finally end their playoff drought. After back-to-back crushing losses, their season is now in danger of completely sliding off the rails.

Buffalo
9-7
AT
November 19, 2017, 4:05 PM ET
Dignity Health Sports Park
Pointspread +7 -120
Moneyline +265
Over / Under o +41.5

56%

Betting Action

44%

Pointspread -7 +100
Moneyline -335
Over / Under u +41.5

56%

Betting Action

44%

The Bills are now 5-4 and would still be in the playoffs if they started today but they’d better sort out their issues with a two-game, west coast road trip on tap. It starts with a visit to Los Angeles this weekend.

Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Chargers opened up as a 3.5-point favorite but the line has already shot up to -4.5. They continue to be competitive but lose close games, so the perception is that they are better than their 3-6 record. As of now, the perception of the Bills is that they’re worse than their 5-4 record indicates. The Chargers are 4-4-1 against the spread this year while the Bills are 5-3-1.

Buffalo Bills

One of the most impressive aspects of Buffalo’s strong start was their ability to consistently force turnovers while limiting their own mistakes. That has changed in recent weeks though, as the Bills have dropped back-to-back losses to the Jets and Saints. The Bills are a -3 in terms of turnovers in the last two games after leading the league with a +14 in the seven games before that.

The Buffalo defense has been hit hard, allowing an average of 40.5 points per game in its two losses. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor is taking the brunt of the blame as he was benched after he completed just 9-of-18 pass attempts for 56 yards and an interception in last week’s loss to New Orleans. Although he had a season-high 285 yards in the game before – a loss to the Jets – the numbers are misleading as almost all of that came in garbage time when the Bills were trailing 31-7. The Bills have decided that his benching will continue and now rookie and fifth-round draft pick, Nathan Peterman, will get the start going forward. Considering they are currently in a playoff spot, this move is shocking.

For this week, what they need is to get LeSean McCoy going and get into the lead. They aren’t built to play from behind. The good news is that they’re facing the league’s second-worst run defense as the Chargers are coughing up 135.1 rushing yards per game.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers continue to find new, painful ways to lose. This time, it was a fumble while trying to milk the clock at the end of the game along with some unconscionable penalties.

The loss left the Chargers at 3-6 but this team isn’t about to fold anytime soon. Los Angeles opened the year with four straight losses before they battled back with three straight wins to avoid irrelevancy. After back-to-back losses, they now enter a must-win game at home against the Bills.

The good news for the Chargers is that the Bills offense has folded. And now they’re giving a rookie – on that looked pedestrian in the preseason – his first NFL start on the road. The Bills defense has allowed a whopping 81 points the last two weeks. Their weakness has been on the ground, giving up 194 rushing yards to the Jets and 298 to the Saints. Typically, when the Chargers rely on Melvin Gordon and the ground game, and take the pressure off of Rivers, they win. It’s important to note that Rivers popped up on the injury report and that he’s in the league’s concussion protocol. Kellen Clemens may get the start in this spot, so keep an eye on the news.

Bills vs Chargers Prediction

SportsInteraction