2019 Super Bowl: Player Props and Predictions

Payton Matthews | Updated Jan 28, 2019

rams-vs-patriots

Sports Interaction has almost too many player prop options available for the Patriots-Rams Super Bowl LIII matchup to count … but we’ve picked out a few of what should be the most popular.

AT
February 03, 2019, 6:30 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
L.A. Rams
13-3
Pointspread -3 +100
Moneyline -135
Over / Under o +56

77%

Betting Action

23%

Pointspread +3 -120
Moneyline +115
Over / Under u +56

77%

Betting Action

23%

In this article, we’ll take a look at Sports Interaction’s Super Bowl player props. For analysis and predictions for this year’s team props, click here. We also have a complete breakdown of the big game, along with a final score prediction, in our Patriots. vs Rams point spread and betting odds post. 

Super Bowl LIII Player Props

During the regular season, prop bets take a back seat to the more common point spread and moneyline style betting, but when it comes to Super Bowl, bettors want to wager on just about everything. From the coin toss to the color of the gatorade tossed on the winning coach, the number of prop bets available during the big game is mind-blowing. Aside from some of the more silly prop bets are player props, where bets can be made on who’ll win Super Bowl MVP, or who’ll score the first touchdown. We dive into a few of the more interesting Super Bowl props here, as well as make a few predictions.

Super Bowl MVP Props

MVP is always one of the most-wagered props of any Super Bowl, and this prop is somewhat easy to cash in on: Simply bet on the quarterback of the team you think will win the game. This is Super Bowl 53, and quarterbacks have won the MVP Award 29 times – obviously more than half. They have taken nine of the past 12 MVP Awards. That’s just where we are with the NFL these days. The league knows that its biggest stars and drawing cards are quarterbacks, so the rules are all skewed to help them thrive. If defenders even touch them, it seems, there’s a penalty. And defensive backs essentially aren’t allowed any contact with receivers. It’s why QBs win the regular-season MVP Award almost annually as well.

Because the New England Patriots are favoured to win the Super Bowl, Pats quarterback Tom Brady is the -115 favourite. His five Super Bowl rings are a record for a QB, and his four Super Bowl MVPs are a record for any player. Only five guys have won multiple Super Bowl MVPs, and they are all quarterbacks. This ain’t rocket science folks!

Rams quarterback Jared Goff is the +230 second-favourite in his first-ever Super Bowl. Here’s an amazing statistic: Goff is 23 years younger than Kurt Warner, who was the Rams’ QB the last time they faced the Patriots in the Super Bowl, which was XXXVI following the 2002 season. The MVP of that game? Brady, of course. That was his first Super Bowl.

No running back has won MVP since XXXII when Denver’s Terrell Davis did. New England’s Sony Michel is +695 and the Rams’ Todd Gurley +800 and C.J. Anderson +1600. The top defensive option is the Rams’ Aaron Donald at +1500. No tight end has ever won MVP. The Pats’ Rob Gronkowski is +2000; some think this will be Gronk’s last-ever NFL game.

Running Back Props

Patriots coach Bill Belichick has changed his team a bit on the fly this year, leaning more and more on Michel, the rookie first-round pick out of Georgia. Michel is the +575 favourite to be the first touchdown scorer of Super Bowl LIII, as well as co-favoured with Gurley as last TD scorer (+650) and anytime TD scorer (-200). All Michel has done in the Patriots’ two playoff games is rush for five combined touchdowns. That’s the most by any rookie in NFL postseason history and most by any player overall this century.

Michel is given over/under totals of 17.5 carries and 74.5 rushing yards; he is -135 to have more rushing yards than Gurley. Michel had 24 carries for 129 yards and three scores in the Divisional Round vs. the Chargers and 29 carries for 113 and two scores in the AFC title game vs. Kansas City. The Rams weren’t particularly good against the run during the regular season in allowing an average of 122.3 rushing yards per game.

Gurley’s health is a concern as he missed the final two regular-season games with a knee injury and didn’t look right at all during the NFC title game where Gurley was barely used and ineffective when so. Anderson has been getting more touches and has been much better. Gurley is given a rushing yardage total of 72.5 and Anderson 42.5.

Super Bowl LIII Player Prop Predictions

We like Rams for the upset, so take Goff for MVP. Michel will score a TD and will top Gurley in yardage. Go over both of Michel’s totals.

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