Rockets vs. Warriors Point Spread: NBA Odds, Prediction

Jeremy Perry | Updated Jan 03, 2019

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The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors were expected to be the last two teams left standing in the Western Conference. While both have struggled at times, they both enter Thursday’s meeting on a roll.

Houston
53-29
AT
January 03, 2019, 10:30 PM ET
Oracle Arena
Golden State
57-25
Pointspread +8.5 -110
Moneyline +295
Over / Under o +226

66%

Betting Action

34%

Pointspread -8.5 -110
Moneyline -375
Over / Under u +226

66%

Betting Action

34%

The Rockets have won 10 of 11 to improve to 21-15 while the Warriors have won 10 of their last 14. The Warriors are a sizable home favorite but can the Rockets make this a close contest and cover?

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Rockets were merely 11-14 before this run, so a number of their spreads have been smaller than usual given their early season struggles. Now that they are hot, though, they are covering with ease as they have cashed in five straight and nine of 11. They’ve thrived against teams with a winning record, cashing in 12 of 18 such contests.

As for the Warriors, they’ve been doing a lot of winning but not a lot of covering. They have covered in two straight but prior to that, had failed to cover in eight of nine. They are just 8-12 ATS at home, 14-19 ATS as the favorite and 7-12 ATS against teams with a winning record.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are still playing without Chris Paul (hamstring) these days but that doesn’t seem to have mattered. James Harden has played out of his mind since the start of December. In the final month of the calendar year, Harden averaged 36.4 points per game with 7.9 assists, 5.0 rebounds and 5.2 threes. That actually pales in comparison to what he’s done recently as on Monday, he become the first player in NBA history to have at least 35 points and five assists in eight straight games. He has surpassed the 40-point mark in four straight and the Rockets might need that type of effort on Thursday night.

The Rockets are going to be a bit shorthanded against a team with four All-Stars and a lot of depth. Not only is Paul out, so is Eric Gordon. James Ennis is also questionable for Thursday. If he can’t go, that removes three players from the lineup who average at least 25 minutes of action. That might be too much to overcome.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors have lost just four of their last 14 games but for the most part, each of those losses are understandable. A loss at Utah is OK and while home losses to the Toronto Raptors, Los Angeles Lakers and Portland Trail Blazers aren’t ideal, but those are all playoff teams. Other than that, this Warriors team has put the locker room drama behind them. They are averaging a healthy 114.8 points per game since the start of December, which is fourth in the league. Their defense has also been much improved as their defensive rating is 106.7 in that span (10th in NBA). They were at 109.6 (19th in the NBA) in the two months prior.

The challenge here is that Golden hasn’t been all that reliable at home of late. They’ve lost two in a row at Oracle Arena and even the two wins before that were by two and by four points, respectively. They have won by nine or more just once in their last six home games. Look for them to win but fall inside of the spread.

Rockets vs. Warriors Prediction

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