The Miami Heat are on the cusp of winning just their second playoff series since LeBron James left as a free agent back in the summer of 2014.
They can send Malcolm Brogdon and the Indiana Pacers home for the season with a win on Monday in Game 4 of their first round series.
NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Pacers are down 0-3 in the series and they’re next cover will be their first in the playoffs. That’s right, one of the best ATS bets in the regular season is an ugly 0-3 against the spread in the postseason this year.
Indiana owns one of the worst defensive ratings of the 16 playoff teams. The club is allowing the Heat to score 115.7 points per 100 possessions. The Over is only 1-2 in the series despite the Pacers’ defensive shortcomings.
The Pacers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games when listed as the underdogs. The Under is 5-1 in their last six contests overall. Miami is 5-1 against the number in its last six games against the Pacers.
The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff games when giving points. The Over is 23-8 in Miami’s last 31 games following a win. About 65 percent of Sports Interaction bettors are backing the Heat to cover as 7-point favourites in Game 4. Meanwhile, close to 80 percent of SIA players expect the game to go Over the 216.5-point total.
One tip for Game 4 bettors: The Heat attempted 53 free throws compared to Indiana’s 28. That’s a pretty big disparity. Expect the whistles to fall in the Pacers’ favour on Monday.
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers were down by as many as 20 against the Heat but shrunk the lead to two points with 2:21 left in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately for Indiana backers, Miami outscored the underdogs 10-3 the rest of the way and covered the spread as 5-point chalk.
Brogdon has been the star of the series for the shorthanded Pacers. The former Milwaukee Buck is averaging 24.3 points and 11 assists per game in three playoff games for Indiana.
Miami Heat
It’s fair to say Heat coach Erik Spoelstra made the right call re-inserting Goran Dragic into the starting lineup. The veteran point guard carried the role of team sixth man for the majority of the regular season, but Spoelstra elected to give Gragic a bigger role in the playoffs.
Dragic is rewarding Spoelstra for the decision. He’s averaging 22.6 points and 5.7 assists in the series and the Heat are +30 with Gragic on the floor.
NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Pacers vs. Heat?
Line History
Sports Interaction customers are placing their bets on:
| time | fav | line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening 23 Aug 12:26pm | IND | -7 -110 | O +216.5 -110 |
| Closing 24 Aug 5:03pm | IND | -6.5 -110 | O +217.5 -110 |
Injuries
Victor Oladipo (SG)
Goga Bitadze (C)
Victor Oladipo (SG)
Myles Turner (C)
Malcolm Brogdon (SG)
Victor Oladipo (SG)
Myles Turner (C)
T.J. Warren (SF)
T.J. McConnell (PG)
T.J. Warren (SF)
Gabe Vincent (SG)
Goran Dragic (PG)
Gabe Vincent (SG)
Andre Iguodala (SG)
Kelly Olynyk (PF)
Jae Crowder (SF)
Kelly Olynyk (PF)
Andre Iguodala (SG)
Jae Crowder (SF)
Derrick Jones Jr. (SF)
Injuries
| player (position) | status | ats*current | o/u* | notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Oladipo (SG) | Prob Thurs | Eye - 18 / 08 / 20 | 1-3 | 1-3 | + - |
|
Oladipo is dealing with a left eye contusion, but it is projected that he will play in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference first round versus the Heat. |
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| Goga Bitadze (C) | Prob Fri | Knee - 13 / 08 / 20 | 2-3 | 1-4 | + - |
|
Bitadze is dealing with a sore left knee, but it is anticipated that he will suit up against the Heat on Friday. |
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| Victor Oladipo (SG) | Prob Tues | Ankle - 13 / 08 / 20 | 2-3 | 1-4 | + - |
|
Oladipo has soreness in his left ankle, but he is expected to be available for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round versus the Heat. |
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| Myles Turner (C) | Prob Tues | Wrist - 13 / 08 / 20 | 2-3 | 1-4 | + - |
|
Turner is bothered by a right wrist sprain, but he is projected to face the Heat in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round. |
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| Malcolm Brogdon (SG) | Prob Fri | Neck - 11 / 08 / 20 | 2-4 | 1-5 | + - |
|
Brogdon sat out the previous game with a sore neck, but he is likely to be in Friday's lineup versus the Heat. |
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| Victor Oladipo (SG) | Prob Wed | Ankle - 11 / 08 / 20 | 2-4 | 1-5 | + - |
|
Oladipo has a sore left ankle, but it is anticipated that he will play Wednesday against the Rockets. |
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| Myles Turner (C) | Prob Wed | Neck - 11 / 08 / 20 | 2-4 | 1-5 | + - |
|
Turner is dealing with a sore neck, but it is projected that he will suit up against the Rockets on Wednesday. |
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| T.J. Warren (SF) | Prob Tues | Foot - 11 / 08 / 20 | 2-4 | 1-5 | + - |
|
Warren is dealing with plantar fasciitis in his right foot, but he is likely to take the court for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round against the Heat. |
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| T.J. McConnell (PG) | Prob Mon | Foot - 09 / 08 / 20 | 3-4 | 2-5 | + - |
|
McConnell has a foot injury, but he is expected to face the Heat on Monday. |
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| T.J. Warren (SF) | Prob Mon | Foot - 09 / 08 / 20 | 3-4 | 2-5 | + - |
|
Warren is dealing with a sore right foot, but he is likely to be in the lineup against the Heat on Monday. |
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| player (position) | status | ats*current | o/u* | notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent (SG) | Ques Sun | Knee - 04 / 10 / 20 | 4-0 | 2-2 | + - |
|
Vincent has a sore right knee, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Lakers in Game 6 of the NBA Finals. |
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| Goran Dragic (PG) | Prob Sun | Foot - 01 / 10 / 20 | 5-1 | 3-3 | + - |
|
Dragic suffered a torn plantar fascia in his left foot. It is expected that he will be available for Game 6 of the NBA Finals versus the Lakers. |
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| Gabe Vincent (SG) | Ques Wed | Knee - 22 / 09 / 20 | 6-3 | 6-3 | + - |
|
Vincent is battling a sore right knee, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Lakers in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. |
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| Andre Iguodala (SG) | Prob Sat | Back - 18 / 09 / 20 | 7-3 | 6-4 | + - |
|
Iguodala is dealing with back spasms, but is likely to take on the Celtics in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals. |
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| Kelly Olynyk (PF) | Prob Tues | Knee - 07 / 09 / 20 | 9-4 | 8-5 | + - |
|
Olynyk has a right knee contusion, but he is likely to suit up against the Bucks in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference second round. |
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| Jae Crowder (SF) | Prob Tues | Ankle - 07 / 09 / 20 | 9-4 | 8-5 | + - |
|
Crowder is nursing a left ankle sprain, but he is expected to play in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference second round versus the Bucks. |
|||||
| Kelly Olynyk (PF) | Prob Sun | Knee - 03 / 09 / 20 | 11-4 | 9-6 | + - |
|
Olynyk is dealing with a right knee contusion, but he is expected to play in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference second round versus the Bucks. |
|||||
| Andre Iguodala (SG) | Ques Fri | Ankle - 02 / 09 / 20 | 12-4 | 9-7 | + - |
|
Iguodala is battling a right ankle sprain, and it is unknown if he will take on the Bucks in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference second round. |
|||||
| Jae Crowder (SF) | Prob Mon | Ankle - 29 / 08 / 20 | 13-4 | 9-8 | + - |
|
Crowder is managing a left ankle injury but is projected to suit up for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference second round against the Bucks. |
|||||
| Derrick Jones Jr. (SF) | Ques Mon | Ankle - 23 / 08 / 20 | 14-4 | 10-8 | + - |
|
Jones Jr. is heading into Game 4 of the Eastern Conference first round versus the Pacers with an uncertain status due to a sprained left ankle. |
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-
INDIANA PACERS
109 -
MIAMI HEAT
114
Score
Prediction
-
Line History
Sports Interaction customers are placing their bets on:
time fav line total Opening 23 Aug 12:26pm IND -7 -110 O +216.5 -110 Closing 24 Aug 5:03pm IND -6.5 -110 O +217.5 -110 -
Injuries
Victor Oladipo (SG)
Prob Thurs Eye - 18 / 08 / 20Goga Bitadze (C)
Prob Fri Knee - 13 / 08 / 20Victor Oladipo (SG)
Prob Tues Ankle - 13 / 08 / 20Myles Turner (C)
Prob Tues Wrist - 13 / 08 / 20Malcolm Brogdon (SG)
Prob Fri Neck - 11 / 08 / 20Victor Oladipo (SG)
Prob Wed Ankle - 11 / 08 / 20Myles Turner (C)
Prob Wed Neck - 11 / 08 / 20T.J. Warren (SF)
Prob Tues Foot - 11 / 08 / 20T.J. McConnell (PG)
Prob Mon Foot - 09 / 08 / 20T.J. Warren (SF)
Prob Mon Foot - 09 / 08 / 20Gabe Vincent (SG)
Ques Sun Knee - 04 / 10 / 20Goran Dragic (PG)
Prob Sun Foot - 01 / 10 / 20Gabe Vincent (SG)
Ques Wed Knee - 22 / 09 / 20Andre Iguodala (SG)
Prob Sat Back - 18 / 09 / 20Kelly Olynyk (PF)
Prob Tues Knee - 07 / 09 / 20Jae Crowder (SF)
Prob Tues Ankle - 07 / 09 / 20Kelly Olynyk (PF)
Prob Sun Knee - 03 / 09 / 20Andre Iguodala (SG)
Ques Fri Ankle - 02 / 09 / 20Jae Crowder (SF)
Prob Mon Ankle - 29 / 08 / 20Derrick Jones Jr. (SF)
Ques Mon Ankle - 23 / 08 / 20Injuries
player (position) status ats*current o/u* notes Victor Oladipo (SG) Prob Thurs Eye - 18 / 08 / 20 1-3 1-3 + - Oladipo is dealing with a left eye contusion, but it is projected that he will play in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference first round versus the Heat.
Goga Bitadze (C) Prob Fri Knee - 13 / 08 / 20 2-3 1-4 + - Bitadze is dealing with a sore left knee, but it is anticipated that he will suit up against the Heat on Friday.
Victor Oladipo (SG) Prob Tues Ankle - 13 / 08 / 20 2-3 1-4 + - Oladipo has soreness in his left ankle, but he is expected to be available for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round versus the Heat.
Myles Turner (C) Prob Tues Wrist - 13 / 08 / 20 2-3 1-4 + - Turner is bothered by a right wrist sprain, but he is projected to face the Heat in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round.
Malcolm Brogdon (SG) Prob Fri Neck - 11 / 08 / 20 2-4 1-5 + - Brogdon sat out the previous game with a sore neck, but he is likely to be in Friday's lineup versus the Heat.
Victor Oladipo (SG) Prob Wed Ankle - 11 / 08 / 20 2-4 1-5 + - Oladipo has a sore left ankle, but it is anticipated that he will play Wednesday against the Rockets.
Myles Turner (C) Prob Wed Neck - 11 / 08 / 20 2-4 1-5 + - Turner is dealing with a sore neck, but it is projected that he will suit up against the Rockets on Wednesday.
T.J. Warren (SF) Prob Tues Foot - 11 / 08 / 20 2-4 1-5 + - Warren is dealing with plantar fasciitis in his right foot, but he is likely to take the court for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round against the Heat.
T.J. McConnell (PG) Prob Mon Foot - 09 / 08 / 20 3-4 2-5 + - McConnell has a foot injury, but he is expected to face the Heat on Monday.
T.J. Warren (SF) Prob Mon Foot - 09 / 08 / 20 3-4 2-5 + - Warren is dealing with a sore right foot, but he is likely to be in the lineup against the Heat on Monday.
player (position) status ats*current o/u* notes Gabe Vincent (SG) Ques Sun Knee - 04 / 10 / 20 4-0 2-2 + - Vincent has a sore right knee, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Lakers in Game 6 of the NBA Finals.
Goran Dragic (PG) Prob Sun Foot - 01 / 10 / 20 5-1 3-3 + - Dragic suffered a torn plantar fascia in his left foot. It is expected that he will be available for Game 6 of the NBA Finals versus the Lakers.
Gabe Vincent (SG) Ques Wed Knee - 22 / 09 / 20 6-3 6-3 + - Vincent is battling a sore right knee, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Lakers in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
Andre Iguodala (SG) Prob Sat Back - 18 / 09 / 20 7-3 6-4 + - Iguodala is dealing with back spasms, but is likely to take on the Celtics in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals.
Kelly Olynyk (PF) Prob Tues Knee - 07 / 09 / 20 9-4 8-5 + - Olynyk has a right knee contusion, but he is likely to suit up against the Bucks in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference second round.
Jae Crowder (SF) Prob Tues Ankle - 07 / 09 / 20 9-4 8-5 + - Crowder is nursing a left ankle sprain, but he is expected to play in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference second round versus the Bucks.
Kelly Olynyk (PF) Prob Sun Knee - 03 / 09 / 20 11-4 9-6 + - Olynyk is dealing with a right knee contusion, but he is expected to play in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference second round versus the Bucks.
Andre Iguodala (SG) Ques Fri Ankle - 02 / 09 / 20 12-4 9-7 + - Iguodala is battling a right ankle sprain, and it is unknown if he will take on the Bucks in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference second round.
Jae Crowder (SF) Prob Mon Ankle - 29 / 08 / 20 13-4 9-8 + - Crowder is managing a left ankle injury but is projected to suit up for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference second round against the Bucks.
Derrick Jones Jr. (SF) Ques Mon Ankle - 23 / 08 / 20 14-4 10-8 + - Jones Jr. is heading into Game 4 of the Eastern Conference first round versus the Pacers with an uncertain status due to a sprained left ankle.