Pacers vs. Heat Game 4 Prediction: NBA Odds, Point Spread

Charlie Grant | Updated Aug 23, 2020

pacers vs heat

The Miami Heat are on the cusp of winning just their second playoff series since LeBron James left as a free agent back in the summer of 2014.

August 24, 2020, 6:30 PM ET
HP Field House
Pointspread +6.5 -110
Moneyline +222
Over / Under o +217.5


Betting Action


Pointspread -6.5 -110
Moneyline -269
Over / Under u +217.5


Betting Action


They can send Malcolm Brogdon and the Indiana Pacers home for the season with a win on Monday in Game 4 of their first round series.

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Pacers are down 0-3 in the series and they’re next cover will be their first in the playoffs. That’s right, one of the best ATS bets in the regular season is an ugly 0-3 against the spread in the postseason this year.

Indiana owns one of the worst defensive ratings of the 16 playoff teams. The club is allowing the Heat to score 115.7 points per 100 possessions. The Over is only 1-2 in the series despite the Pacers’ defensive shortcomings.

The Pacers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games when listed as the underdogs. The Under is 5-1 in their last six contests overall. Miami is 5-1 against the number in its last six games against the Pacers.

The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff games when giving points. The Over is 23-8 in Miami’s last 31 games following a win. About 65 percent of Sports Interaction bettors are backing the Heat to cover as 7-point favourites in Game 4. Meanwhile, close to 80 percent of SIA players expect the game to go Over the 216.5-point total.

One tip for Game 4 bettors: The Heat attempted 53 free throws compared to Indiana’s 28. That’s a pretty big disparity. Expect the whistles to fall in the Pacers’ favour on Monday.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers were down by as many as 20 against the Heat but shrunk the lead to two points with 2:21 left in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately for Indiana backers, Miami outscored the underdogs 10-3 the rest of the way and covered the spread as 5-point chalk.

Brogdon has been the star of the series for the shorthanded Pacers. The former Milwaukee Buck is averaging 24.3 points and 11 assists per game in three playoff games for Indiana.

Miami Heat

It’s fair to say Heat coach Erik Spoelstra made the right call re-inserting Goran Dragic into the starting lineup. The veteran point guard carried the role of team sixth man for the majority of the regular season, but Spoelstra elected to give Gragic a bigger role in the playoffs.

Dragic is rewarding Spoelstra for the decision. He’s averaging 22.6 points and 5.7 assists in the series and the Heat are +30 with Gragic on the floor.

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