The Golden State Warriors roll into Sunday’s game on a hot streak as they’ve won three straight and 14 of their last 15 games. While everyone is talking about the top Eastern Conference teams and all of the moves they’ve made, the Warriors are quietly playing their best basketball of the season. Nothing is expected to change on Sunday when the struggling Miami Heat visit. The Heat have dropped four of five and have just four wins in their last 12.

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Heat have been a reliable road bet this season as they are 16-10 against the spread (ATS) even though they are just 14-12 straight up. They have also cashed frequently as a dog as they are 15-9 ATS in that spot. However, it’s worth noting that they are in one of their biggest slumps of the season as they have covered just six times in their last 17 games. They also don’t pay well against winning teams as Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last five games when facing a team with a winning percentage above .600.

The Warriors are a huge favorite in this spot but they thrive in this role. They are 6-1 ATS this season when posted as a home favorite of 12.5 or more. They have also covered in seven of their last 10 against the Eastern Conference.

Miami Heat

The Heat are in a funk right now and it’s hard to say whether they have the talent to turn things around. They’ve lost four of five and their latest loss is really going to sting. They blew an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter at Sacramento to cough up the win.

The Heat are really struggling at the offensive end these days as they can barely break the 100-point barrier. They’re averaging 98.6 points per contest over their last five. They enter Sunday’s affair averaging just 105 points per outing, which ranks them 26^th in the NBA. As bad as that number is, it’s worse in their last 12 contests as they’re at merely 99.4. Only two teams are scoring less in that span. That’s a big concern considering they’re about to visit one of the best offenses in the NBA.

Golden State Warriors

While the Heat are laboring to put up points, the Warriors have had no issue with that. Over their last 12 games, they lead the NBA with 125 points per game. Of course, one has to mention that the Heat are playing without Goran Dragic, who was one of the keys to the team’s offence. At the same time, while the Heat are short on depth, the Warriors have plenty of it. With essentially five All-Stars in their starting lineup, they have huge advantages both in the first and second units.

The Heat have played 36 games against teams who averaged 106 points per game or more, and they are just 14-22 in those games. This just doesn’t shape up as a good matchup for them.

Injuries

Miami

Dion Waiters (SG)

Prob Fri Knee - 04 / 04 / 19

Ryan Anderson (PF)

Prob Tues Personal - 04 / 04 / 19

Josh Richardson (SG)

Late April Hip - 03 / 04 / 19

Derrick Jones Jr. (SF)

Ques Sun Knee - 01 / 04 / 19

Derrick Jones Jr. (SF)

Prob Mon Personal - 31 / 03 / 19

Derrick Jones Jr. (SF)

Ques Sat Personal - 30 / 03 / 19

Josh Richardson (SG)

Prob Wed Heel - 27 / 03 / 19

Bam Adebayo (C)

Prob Fri Hip - 21 / 03 / 19

Rodney McGruder (SF)

Prob Wed Knee - 18 / 03 / 19

Justise Winslow (SF)

Prob Wed Thigh - 16 / 03 / 19

Golden State

Kevon Looney (C)

Prob Thurs Collarbone - 11 / 06 / 19

Kevon Looney (C)

Ques Fri Collarbone - 02 / 06 / 19

Andre Iguodala (SF)

Prob Sun Calf - 31 / 05 / 19

Shaun Livingston (PG)

Prob Thurs Knee - 27 / 05 / 19

Andre Iguodala (SF)

Prob Thurs Calf - 19 / 05 / 19

Kevon Looney (C)

Prob Thurs Knee - 15 / 05 / 19

Andre Iguodala (SF)

Prob Wed Knee - 07 / 05 / 19

Shaun Livingston (PG)

Prob Wed Hip - 07 / 05 / 19

Draymond Green (PF)

Prob Wed Wrist - 21 / 04 / 19

DeMarcus Cousins (C)

Prob Thurs Quadricep - 16 / 04 / 19

Injuries

Miami

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Dion Waiters (SG)	Prob Fri	Knee - 04 / 04 / 19	1-3	3-1	+ -
Waiters is likely to play against the Timberwolves on Friday despite a left knee injury.
Ryan Anderson (PF)	Prob Tues	Personal - 04 / 04 / 19	1-3	3-1	+ -
Anderson has missed the last two games due to a personal matter but is likely to be available for Tuesday's matchup with the 76ers.
Josh Richardson (SG)	Late April	Hip - 03 / 04 / 19	2-3	4-1	+ -
Richardson is sidelined with a right hip strain and is expected to miss at least two weeks of action.
Derrick Jones Jr. (SF)	Ques Sun	Knee - 01 / 04 / 19	3-3	4-2	+ -
Jones Jr. was held out of the last two games due to a right knee bone bruise and it is undetermined if it will hinder his availability against the Raptors on Sunday.
Derrick Jones Jr. (SF)	Prob Mon	Personal - 31 / 03 / 19	3-3	4-2	+ -
Jones Jr. is tending to a personal matter but is projected to face the Celtics on Monday.
Derrick Jones Jr. (SF)	Ques Sat	Personal - 30 / 03 / 19	3-3	4-3	+ -
Jones is dealing with a personal issue and his status for Saturday's matchup against the Knicks is uncertain.
Josh Richardson (SG)	Prob Wed	Heel - 27 / 03 / 19	3-4	4-4	+ -
Richardson has missed the past three games with a left heel contusion but is expected to return to the lineup Wednesday against the Celtics.
Bam Adebayo (C)	Prob Fri	Hip - 21 / 03 / 19	6-5	7-5	+ -
Adebayo is nursing a right hip contusion but it is likely he will be in Friday's lineup versus the Bucks.
Rodney McGruder (SF)	Prob Wed	Knee - 18 / 03 / 19	7-5	7-6	+ -
McGruder has been absent from the lineup with soreness in his left knee but is likely to draw back into the lineup Wednesday against the Celtics.
Justise Winslow (SF)	Prob Wed	Thigh - 16 / 03 / 19	7-6	7-7	+ -
Winslow is sidelined with a right thigh contusion and is also dealing with a case of food poisoning. He is projected to face the Celtics on Wednesday.

Golden State

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Kevon Looney (C)	Prob Thurs	Collarbone - 11 / 06 / 19	0-1	0-2	+ -
Looney is expected to play in Game 6 of the NBA Finals against the Raptors despite leaving the last game after aggravating his right first costal cartilage non-displaced fracture.
Kevon Looney (C)	Ques Fri	Collarbone - 02 / 06 / 19	1-3	3-2	+ -
Looney suffered a right first costal cartilage non-displaced fracture to his collarbone and it is unknown if he will return against the Raptors in Game 4 of the NBA Finals.
Andre Iguodala (SF)	Prob Sun	Calf - 31 / 05 / 19	1-3	4-2	+ -
Iguodala is nursing left calf soreness but it is likely he will play against the Raptors in Game 2 of the NBA Finals.
Shaun Livingston (PG)	Prob Thurs	Knee - 27 / 05 / 19	1-3	4-2	+ -
Livingston is expected to play against the Raptors in Game 1 of the NBA Finals despite a sore left knee.
Andre Iguodala (SF)	Prob Thurs	Calf - 19 / 05 / 19	2-4	5-3	+ -
Iguodala is dealing with tightness in his left calf but is expected to be available for Game 1 of the NBA Finals against the Raptors.
Kevon Looney (C)	Prob Thurs	Knee - 15 / 05 / 19	4-4	6-4	+ -
Looney is likely to partake in Game 2 of the Western Conference finals against the Trail Blazers despite left knee soreness.
Andre Iguodala (SF)	Prob Wed	Knee - 07 / 05 / 19	4-7	7-5-1	+ -
Iguodala has a hyperextended left knee but is expected to play in Game 5 of the Western Conference second round against the Rockets.
Shaun Livingston (PG)	Prob Wed	Hip - 07 / 05 / 19	4-7	7-5-1	+ -
Livingston is battling soreness in his left hip but is likely to suit up against the Rockets in Game 5 of the Western Conference second round.
Draymond Green (PF)	Prob Wed	Wrist - 21 / 04 / 19	7-10	11-7-1	+ -
Green is nursing a right wrist injury but is projected to suit up against the Clippers in Game 5 of the Western Conference first round.
DeMarcus Cousins (C)	Prob Thurs	Quadricep - 16 / 04 / 19	8-11	12-8-1	+ -
Cousins will be available for Game 1 of the NBA Finals against the Raptors after recovering from a tear in his left quadriceps.

Heat vs. Warriors Prediction