Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Prediction, NBA Odds

Edgar Chaput | Updated Nov 30, 2022

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The Celtics continue what has been a successful home stand when the Miami Heat arrive at TD Garden for some Wednesday night NBA action.

Miami
40-34
AT
November 30, 2022, 7:30 PM ET
TD Garden
Boston
51-23
Pointspread +9.5 -106
Moneyline +343
Over / Under o +225.5

42%

Betting Action

58%

Matchup NBA Odds
Pointspread -9.5 -114
Moneyline -422
Over / Under u +225.5

42%

Betting Action

58%

Matchup NBA Odds

Both teams find themselves in vastly different positions heading into this contest. Boston is first in the East, whereas Miami trails in eighth place.

NBA odds makers view the Celtics as -9 favourites. The over-under is expected at 224.5

Heat vs. Celtics NBA Betting Odds

Miami and Boston have been thorns in each other’s sides for a whole decade at this point. From the legendary Game 6 in the 2012 East Finals, to the bubble-bound 2020 East Finals, to last year’s tense, seven-game marathon. As such, there is a healthy mixture of regular-season and playoff history to study.

For the 2020-2021 campaign, there were three meetings, all won by the road team (Miami twice, Boston once). For 2021-2022, another three contests. Boston edged the series 2-1, with road teams winning twice. Last year’s East Final saw road teams go 5-2 as the Celtics emerged victorious 4 games to 3. So far this year there has already been one in Miami, which the Celtics claimed. The away team often earns the spoils.

Miami has struggled against the spread this season, with only a 7-13-1 to show for their efforts. They have slightly improved their record though, going 4-1-1 over the past six games. A bit disconcerting is the team’s 1-7 record ATS when playing squads several games above them in the overall NBA standings (Suns, Celtics, Trailblazers at the time, Cavaliers, Raptors).

With respect to Beantown, all that matters is winning. Whether by 1 point or 35, as long as they stay hot they’ll be happy. We mention this because even though they sit atop the Eastern Conference at 17-4, ATS they’re “only” 13-8. That said, the current home stretch has improved the record from what was when it began: 9-8.

Miami Heat

Last year they were the top seed in the East, eventually falling to Boston in seven games in the East Finals in an epic series. The current campaign has been more trying. At 10-11, Eric Spoelstra’s men haven’t lived up to expectations.

Perhaps Sunday’s visit to Atlanta to contend with the Georgia peach-coloured Hawks was the sort of win to set Miami on the right course. The 106-98 victory showed character and grit that’s been lacking at times. Bam Adebayo ran havoc in the paint, scorching Atlanta for 32 points to go along with his 8 rebounds. Moreover, they dug themselves out an early hole, trailing 31-23 at the end of the first stanza. Jimmy Butler is still out with a knee injury but could be back for Friday’s tilt, also in Boston.

Boston Celtics

A salient comment was made by the play-by-play folks covering Boston’s Monday match against Charlotte. They’re a well-oiled machine right now. Unlike other clubs who suffer Finals-defeat hangovers, the Celtics have picked up exactly where they left off: as a strong contender in the East that could go deep in the playoffs again. More impressive is that they’ve stayed the course despite a new coach (Joe Mazzulla) taking over after some summer controversy involving his predecessor.

Full disclosure: none of the teams that challenged the Celtics in the first four games of the homestand have tremendous records: Dallas, Sacramento, Washington, and Charlotte. But they’re well-oiled, as per the club’s commentators. Jaylen Brown is day-to-day. While that didn’t affect the 140-105 squashing of the Hornets, it may hurt against tougher opposition like the Heat.

NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Heat vs. Celtics?

NBA Predictions
SportsInteraction
  • MIA
  • +9.5 -9.5
  • BOS
Matchup NBA Odds