Heat vs. Celtics Prediction: NBA Odds, Point Spread

Andrew Rogers | Updated Jan 10, 2021

Jayson Tatum, Celtics, 2021

Led by standout forward Jayson Tatum, the Celtics could be without up to nine rotation players Sunday vs. Heat.

Miami
40-32
AT
January 10, 2021, 7:00 PM ET
TD Garden
Boston
36-36
Pointspread -9.5 -110
Moneyline -500
Over / Under o +213.5

52%

Betting Action

48%

Pointspread +9.5 -110
Moneyline +375
Over / Under u +213.5

52%

Betting Action

48%

The hotly-anticipated rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference final was as good as advertised – but the second chapter in this season’s rivalry between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics has been marred by COVID-19. The Celtics host Sunday’s rematch, and they could be down to a bare minimum of players due to health and safety protocols – four players are listed as out, while Jayson Tatum is doubtful and three others are questionable.

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Expect the spread for this game to move based on which Celtics players are able to dress. At the moment, the Heat are comfortable favourites as they seek to avenge a 107-105 loss to Boston last Wednesday. Miami is just 3-6 ATS in its previous nine games, but has covered seven of its last nine visits to TD Garden. Boston has been sensational of late, going 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in its past seven (including a cover vs. the Heat at +2.5 last week).

The total for this game is expected to come in around the mid-210s, but will also depend on who is in the Boston lineup. And let’s not overlook the fact that the Heat might use the opportunity to rest players on the back end of a back-to-back if the Celtics aren’t at full strength, which would likely drive the total down further. The teams have played to the Over in four of their previous five head-to-head meetings, though their last meeting came in 5 ½ points below the number.

Miami Heat

It wouldn’t be at all shocking to see the Heat give their star forward a breather depending on how the Boston roster shakes out. Jimmy Butler racked up 26 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists in Saturday’s 128-124 win over Washington while playing a season-high 36 minutes. The leader of last year’s Eastern Conference championship roster has yet to play in back-to-back games this season, and could be limited or even sit out vs. the Celtics.

Boston Celtics

This is ugly. Led by standout forward Jayson Tatum, the Celtics could be without up to nine rotation players Sunday (eight due to COVID-related matters, and point guard Kemba Walker due to a knee injury that has kept him out all season). Should all nine miss the game, bettors would be wise to avoid the Celtics altogether: they would be left with just eight players, six of which are guards and two of which are centers.

Who Will Win Heat vs. Celtics?

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