Celtics vs. Heat Prediction: NBA Odds, Point Spread

Nik Kowalski | Updated Jan 06, 2021

jayson tatum celtics

The wounded 5-3 Celtics wrap up their four-game road trip with a visit to Miami, taking on the 3-3 Heat in their first meeting since last year’s Conference Final.

January 06, 2021, 7:30 PM ET
American Airlines Arena
Pointspread +2.5 -110
Moneyline +122
Over / Under o +218


Betting Action


Pointspread -2.5 -110
Moneyline -147
Over / Under u +218


Betting Action


As a five seed underdog, Miami took that series in six games before ultimately losing in the finals.

Wednesday’s bout is the first of two meetings this season between these two clubs, the second coming Sunday back in Boston. It’ll be the Celtics’ first trip back to Florida since the NBA bubble.

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Heat have opened as 2.5-point favourites at home, which speaks to how even these teams are. In the last 10 Heat–Celtics games not only is each time 5-5 straight up by also even against the spread.

Oddsmakers have set the total at 218 and there’s a real trend behind Boston overs, going 4-1 in their last five and 6-2 in their last eight on the road. But it’s the opposite for Miami; their unders are hot. Four out of Miami’s last six have gone under, as well as six of their last seven at home. The Heat ranking 27th in points for has a played a large role.

Boston Celtics

Without Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, and Jeff Teague in the lineup it was Jason Tatum who stepped up with a season-high 40 in Boston’s most recent win. The 12-point victory over Toronto saw Boston shoot over 50 per cent from the arc and record 60 points off the bench.

It called for several season-highs, including 2019 and 2020 first-round picks Grant Williams and Payton Pritchard respectively. Williams dropped 14, but it was Pritchard who exploded for 23 points on eight of 13 shooting from the field. The 6’2 point guard chimed in for eight assists too.

Although dealing with some key injuries, Boston hasn’t caught their stride yet. Their + 0.8 point differential ranks 13th in the NBA, and aside from Tatum and Jaylen Brown no starter has an efficiency rating above 16.

Miami Heat

Tied for first in the NBA with 17.7 turnovers per game, the Heat haven’t been playing to their potential. There have spurts, like a 20-0 third quarter run during a 28-point win over Oklahoma City Tuesday, but lack consistency. It stems within their starting lineup.

Miami has yet to roster the same starting five, they’ve also yet to win two straight games. One consistent has been Bam Adebayo, who led all scorers Tuesday with 20 points.

Adebayo’s continued to elevate his overall play after last year’s emergence, leading the Heat with 19.2 points and eight rebounds per game. The former Kentucky Wildcat is also fourth on the team with 4.3 assists per game, and second with 1.3 steals to per game.

NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Celtics vs. Heat?

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