The Milwaukee Bucks are steamrolling opponents in the 2019 NBA Playoffs, but oddsmakers have them as the underdogs in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals on Sunday.
Only 6.6 percent of all NBA teams down 0-2 have come back and gone on to win the series. The Toronto Raptors are hoping they can add their names to the history books. To do that, they’ll have to come up with a new game plan for stopping Giannis Antetokounmpo and Co.
NBA Playoffs Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Attention NBA bettors: the Bucks are covering the spread in these playoffs at a historical rate. Since the 2004 playoffs, only two teams have ever covered the number in at least 75 percent of their playoff games and made it at least to the third round.
The 2008-09 Denver Nuggets went 13-3 against the spread (81.2 percent cover rate) and the 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks went 15-4-2 ATS (79 percent). Milwaukee is 10-1 against the number in its first 11 postseason games. That’s a 90.1 percent win rate for ATS bettors. Not too shabby.
Making matters worse for Toronto supporters – the Bucks are now 6-1 ATS in their last seven head-to-head meetings with the Raptors.
The pace in this series has been significantly quicker than last round against the Sixers, but the Raptors are still struggling to find a groove at the offensive end. The Raps are averaging just 99.5 points per 100 possessions while allowing 114.2 in the East finals.
Nick Nurse is adopting Fresh Prince Coach Smiley’s philosophy, but substituting Will for Kawhi in the key principle of “Pass it to Will.”
About 68 percent of Sports Interaction bettors are backing the Bucks to cover as 2.5-point road underdogs in Game 3 while 79 percent expect the score to surpass the 220-point Over/Under line.
Game 2 marked the sixth time in these playoffs the Bucks have won by 20 or more points in a contest. They became only the third team to record such a feat in a single playoff. Two of those three teams (‘18 Warriors, ‘14 Spurs) went on to win the title. The other team (‘96 Jazz) lost to arguably the best team in NBA history.
Golden State is still the favourite to win the 2019 NBA title at -200. Sports Interaction lists the Bucks as the next favourite at +175 odds.
Marc Gasol does so many little things to help a basketball team win games. His defensive was pivotal in the conference semifinals against the Sixers Joel Embiid, but he’s looked out of place in this series.
Gasol missed a number of point blank shots at the rim in the early going of Game 2. It helped the Bucks jump out to a 9-0 first-quarter lead. The three-time All-Star is averaging just 7.9 points while shooting an ugly 39.8 percent from the field in the playoffs this year.