The first stage of the duology was Thursday night, a face-off that the home team Heat claimed 108-102.

The Heat are the slightest of favourites, -1.5 on the NBA odds as they develop. The over-under is 217.5.

Bucks vs. Heat NBA Betting Odds

Milwaukee and Miami trade wins and losses with regularity. In the 2020 bubble, the Heat bounced the Bucks out of the second round of the playoffs with a 4-1 series win. Then, in the summer of 2021, it was Milwaukee’s turn to put an abrupt end to Miami’s season, sweeping a first-round tilt 4-0. Since then, eight regular-season games have been played, with neither side capable of building even a two-game streak. The only consistency to speak of is that the home team has won the last seven.

This two-game set is critical for both sides, as they jostle for positioning in the Eastern Conference. While a sweep wouldn’t have Miami overtake Milwaukee, it would close the gap to only three games and a half games.

Thursday night’s defeat was the third time this season the final score of a Bucks game resulted in a push. They were underdogs by exactly six points. Playing away from home has been more difficult, as is playing without Giannis, whose absence was a coach’s decision. Milwaukee is only 11-10 away on their travels.

Despite slowly but surely rising back into the playoff conversation, Erik Spoelstra’s ensemble is having a sub-par season when trying to cover. Their 16-24-3 record doesn’t inspire confidence. Equally disconcerting is that ATS the Floridian troupe is only 3-6-1 in their last ten home games.

Milwaukee Bucks

First, Thursday’s game the from losers’ perspective. As previously mentioned, coach Budenholzer strove for workload balance. Knowing another date with the Heat awaited, he sat Giannis Antetokounmpo. While the end result backfired, the truth of the matter is that his side fared honourably, at least for most of the evening.

Jrue Holiday led his team with 24 points off 7-10 field goal shooting, most notably 3-4 from range. He was a challenge for Miami defenders all evening. When he wasn’t scoring, he contributed with 11 assists. The bench had a very nice outing as well. No fewer than three substitutes reached at least the 15-point plateau, something the group can be proud of. Jevon Carter’s 18 points stood out.  He took a lot of shots from downtown (14) but still made a respectable amount (6). Defending the paint failed Milwaukee. By the game’s conclusion, Miami had a ludicrous 58-18 point advantage in that area.

As of Friday morning, Giannis is still listed as Day-to-Day.

Miami Heat

And now the winners’ perspective. No one doubts that Spoelstra is one of the great coaches in the NBA, but the adjustments executed by the home side spoke to how adept and malleable they are when it becomes a necessity.

The Bucks hung around for much of the night, which may have been alarming given that the Greek Freak was limited to being a spectator. The reality is when Miami plays to its full capacity, it’s easy to see how they’ve attained success in recent seasons. Initially, it was Gabe Vincent’s hot shooting from three-point range that supported the cause (5-11 from distance). As the contest shifted to the second half, especially the final frame, the strategy morphed into total domination in the key. This was where Bam Adebayo (24 points) and Victor Oladipo (14 points) put their mark on the game, splurging for buckets and dunks.

Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro are listed as Day-to-Day.

NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Bucks vs. Heat?

• Regular Season

Bucks Team Leaders

MIL

Points	Giannis Antetokounmpo 31.25
Assists	Jrue Holiday 7.32
Rebounds	Giannis Antetokounmpo 11.89
FG%	Meyers Leonard 57.1
Steals	Jrue Holiday 1.17
Blocks	Brook Lopez 2.49

MIA

Points	Jimmy Butler 22.88
Assists	Kyle Lowry 5.16
Rebounds	Bam Adebayo 9.32
FG%	Bam Adebayo 54.2
Steals	Jimmy Butler 1.9
Blocks	Bam Adebayo 0.87

• Regular Season

Heat Team Leaders

MIL

Points	Giannis Antetokounmpo 31.25
Assists	Jrue Holiday 7.32
Rebounds	Giannis Antetokounmpo 11.89
FG%	Meyers Leonard 57.1
Steals	Jrue Holiday 1.17
Blocks	Brook Lopez 2.49

MIA

Points	Jimmy Butler 22.88
Assists	Kyle Lowry 5.16
Rebounds	Bam Adebayo 9.32
FG%	Bam Adebayo 54.2
Steals	Jimmy Butler 1.9
Blocks	Bam Adebayo 0.87

Injuries

Milwaukee

Meyers Leonard (PF)

Ques Fri Calf - 19 / 03 / 23

Thanasis Antetokounmpo (SF)

Prob Wed Personal - 16 / 03 / 23

Brook Lopez (C)

Prob Sun Ankle - 15 / 03 / 23

Jae Crowder (SF)

Ques Fri Calf - 15 / 03 / 23

Grayson Allen (SG)

Prob Sun Foot - 14 / 03 / 23

Khris Middleton (SF)

Prob Thurs Rest - 14 / 03 / 23

Goran Dragic (PG)

Out indefinitely Knee - 14 / 03 / 23

Joe Ingles (SF)

Ques Tues Rest - 13 / 03 / 23

Jae Crowder (SF)

Prob Thurs Ankle - 08 / 03 / 23

Goran Dragic (PG)

Prob Sat Knee - 05 / 03 / 23

Miami

Kyle Lowry (PG)

Prob Wed Knee - 21 / 03 / 23

Caleb Martin (SF)

Prob Wed Knee - 21 / 03 / 23

Kyle Lowry (PG)

Prob Sun Knee - 17 / 03 / 23

Kyle Lowry (PG)

Ques Wed Knee - 14 / 03 / 23

Kyle Lowry (PG)

Prob Mon Knee - 12 / 03 / 23

Caleb Martin (SF)

Prob Mon Knee - 11 / 03 / 23

Cody Zeller (PF)

Out indefinitely Nose - 11 / 03 / 23

Duncan Robinson (SF)

Prob Mon Illness - 10 / 03 / 23

Kevin Love (PF)

Prob Fri Ribs - 09 / 03 / 23

Kevin Love (PF)

Prob Wed Ribs - 05 / 03 / 23

Injuries

Milwaukee

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Meyers Leonard (PF)	Ques Fri	Calf - 19 / 03 / 23	2-0	1-1	+ -
Leonard has been held out of the last two contests with left calf soreness, and it is uncertain if he will face the Jazz on Friday.
Thanasis Antetokounmpo (SF)	Prob Wed	Personal - 16 / 03 / 23	1-0	1-0	+ -
Antetokounmpo has missed the previous two games due to a personal matter, but it is anticipated that he will suit up for Wednesday's matchup against the Spurs.
Brook Lopez (C)	Prob Sun	Ankle - 15 / 03 / 23	0-0	0-0	+ -
Lopez was unavailable for the last game due to ankle soreness, but he is expected to be in the lineup Sunday versus the Raptors.
Jae Crowder (SF)	Ques Fri	Calf - 15 / 03 / 23	0-0	0-0	+ -
Crowder has been absent from the previous three games with left calf soreness, and it has yet to be established if he will take to the court Friday against the Jazz.
Grayson Allen (SG)	Prob Sun	Foot - 14 / 03 / 23	0-1	1-0	+ -
Allen has sat out the last two contests with right plantar fascia soreness, but it is predicted that he will return versus the Raptors in Sunday's tilt.
Khris Middleton (SF)	Prob Thurs	Rest - 14 / 03 / 23	0-1	1-0	+ -
MIddleton sat out the last game as he was given a day of rest, but it is predicted that he will play on Thursday against the Pacers.
Goran Dragic (PG)	Out indefinitely	Knee - 14 / 03 / 23	0-1	1-0	+ -
Dragic is sidelined due to left knee soreness, and there is no timetable for return.
Joe Ingles (SF)	Ques Tues	Rest - 13 / 03 / 23	0-1	1-0	+ -
Ingles sat out the last game as he was given a day of rest, and it is unclear if he will play on Tuesday versus the Suns.
Jae Crowder (SF)	Prob Thurs	Ankle - 08 / 03 / 23	1-2	2-1	+ -
Crowder is dealing with right ankle soreness, but it is not expected to impact his status versus the Nets on Thursday.
Goran Dragic (PG)	Prob Sat	Knee - 05 / 03 / 23	3-3	4-2	+ -
Dragic has been absent from the previous three matches with left knee soreness, and it is forecasted that he will return for Saturday's contest with the Warriors.

Miami

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Kyle Lowry (PG)	Prob Wed	Knee - 21 / 03 / 23	1-2	2-1	+ -
Lowry is expected to dress for Wednesday's clash with the Knicks despite left knee soreness.
Caleb Martin (SF)	Prob Wed	Knee - 21 / 03 / 23	1-2	2-1	+ -
Martin is hobbled by soreness in his left knee, but it is likely that he will take on the Knicks on Wednesday.
Kyle Lowry (PG)	Prob Sun	Knee - 17 / 03 / 23	0-1	1-0	+ -
Lowry was absent from the last game due to left knee soreness, but it is anticipated that he will be available against the Pistons on Sunday.
Kyle Lowry (PG)	Ques Wed	Knee - 14 / 03 / 23	0-0	0-0	+ -
Lowry is battling left knee soreness, and it is undetermined if he will be available for Wednesday's contest versus the Grizzlies.
Kyle Lowry (PG)	Prob Mon	Knee - 12 / 03 / 23	0-1	1-0	+ -
Lowry is hampered by left knee soreness, but it is likely that he will lace up for Monday's clash with the Jazz.
Caleb Martin (SF)	Prob Mon	Knee - 11 / 03 / 23	1-2	2-1	+ -
Martin sat out the last game with left knee soreness, but it is expected that he will partake in Monday's battle with the Jazz.
Cody Zeller (PF)	Out indefinitely	Nose - 11 / 03 / 23	1-2	2-1	+ -
Zeller is out of action with a nasal fracture, and there is no timetable for return.
Duncan Robinson (SF)	Prob Mon	Illness - 10 / 03 / 23	1-2	2-1	+ -
Robinson has cleared the league's health and safety protocols, and he is projected to return against the Jazz on Monday.
Kevin Love (PF)	Prob Fri	Ribs - 09 / 03 / 23	1-3	3-1	+ -
Love is dealing with a right rib contusion, but it is not expected to impact his availability for Friday's clash against the Cavaliers.
Kevin Love (PF)	Prob Wed	Ribs - 05 / 03 / 23	2-4	4-2	+ -
Love was held out of the previous game due to a right rib contusion, but he is expected to play Wednesday versus the Cavaliers.