Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Prediction, NBA Odds

Edgar Chaput | Updated Jan 14, 2023

NBA: Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat

The Bucks and the Heat get Friday off before engaging in their second tilt in three days, also in Miami, on Saturday at 1 p.m.

January 14, 2023, 1:00 PM ET
American Airlines Arena
Pointspread +4 -114
Moneyline +142
Over / Under o +213


Betting Action


Pointspread -4 -106
Moneyline -171
Over / Under u +213


Betting Action


The first stage of the duology was Thursday night, a face-off that the home team Heat claimed 108-102.

The Heat are the slightest of favourites, -1.5 on the NBA odds as they develop. The over-under is 217.5.

Bucks vs. Heat NBA Betting Odds

Milwaukee and Miami trade wins and losses with regularity. In the 2020 bubble, the Heat bounced the Bucks out of the second round of the playoffs with a 4-1 series win. Then, in the summer of 2021, it was Milwaukee’s turn to put an abrupt end to Miami’s season, sweeping a first-round tilt 4-0. Since then, eight regular-season games have been played, with neither side capable of building even a two-game streak. The only consistency to speak of is that the home team has won the last seven.

This two-game set is critical for both sides, as they jostle for positioning in the Eastern Conference. While a sweep wouldn’t have Miami overtake Milwaukee, it would close the gap to only three games and a half games.

Thursday night’s defeat was the third time this season the final score of a Bucks game resulted in a push. They were underdogs by exactly six points. Playing away from home has been more difficult, as is playing without Giannis, whose absence was a coach’s decision. Milwaukee is only 11-10 away on their travels.

Despite slowly but surely rising back into the playoff conversation, Erik Spoelstra’s ensemble is having a sub-par season when trying to cover. Their 16-24-3 record doesn’t inspire confidence. Equally disconcerting is that ATS the Floridian troupe is only 3-6-1 in their last ten home games.

Milwaukee Bucks

First, Thursday’s game the from losers’ perspective. As previously mentioned, coach Budenholzer strove for workload balance. Knowing another date with the Heat awaited, he sat Giannis Antetokounmpo. While the end result backfired, the truth of the matter is that his side fared honourably, at least for most of the evening.

Jrue Holiday led his team with 24 points off 7-10 field goal shooting, most notably 3-4 from range. He was a challenge for Miami defenders all evening. When he wasn’t scoring, he contributed with 11 assists. The bench had a very nice outing as well. No fewer than three substitutes reached at least the 15-point plateau, something the group can be proud of. Jevon Carter’s 18 points stood out.  He took a lot of shots from downtown (14) but still made a respectable amount (6). Defending the paint failed Milwaukee. By the game’s conclusion, Miami had a ludicrous 58-18 point advantage in that area.

As of Friday morning, Giannis is still listed as Day-to-Day.

Miami Heat

And now the winners’ perspective. No one doubts that Spoelstra is one of the great coaches in the NBA, but the adjustments executed by the home side spoke to how adept and malleable they are when it becomes a necessity.

The Bucks hung around for much of the night, which may have been alarming given that the Greek Freak was limited to being a spectator. The reality is when Miami plays to its full capacity, it’s easy to see how they’ve attained success in recent seasons. Initially, it was Gabe Vincent’s hot shooting from three-point range that supported the cause (5-11 from distance). As the contest shifted to the second half, especially the final frame, the strategy morphed into total domination in the key. This was where Bam Adebayo (24 points) and Victor Oladipo (14 points) put their mark on the game, splurging for buckets and dunks.

Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro are listed as Day-to-Day.

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