A.L. East Preview: Arms Race Favors Rays, But They Need More

Working with one of the smaller payrolls in Major League Baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays nonetheless have found ways to contend since their trip to the World Series in 2008. While they’ve seen the playoffs three of the past four years, they only made it in 2011 because of Boston’s spectacular September collapse. They’ll need more than their outstanding arms and the bad luck of others to make an impact this season.

The Action: General manager Andrew Friedman’s biggest move so far in the off-season has been to pick up former Chicago Cub Carlos Pena to patrol first base and hit home runs. The club also signed Luke Scott to be their DH. Otherwise they’ve stood pat, but they’re still in the position to deal one of their fine pitchers to fill a hole or two.

It’s A Lock: Pitching will continue to be the mainstay of the Rays, with a glittering array of starting talent including James Shields, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore (any of them could, and one or two likely will, be in the running for Cy Young consideration), along with Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann and Alex Cobb. It’s an embarrasment of riches that any team outside the New York Yankees would kill to have.

Their stud prospects, Alex Torrez and Chris Archer, don’t appear to have a prayer of cracking that formidable slate. So it looks like their Triple-A club, the Durham Bulls, will have their own awesome arms to display.

Manager Joe Maddon was re-signed to a three-year contract extension in the offseason, and he’ll be a big part of the club’s fortunes.

Hedge Your Bets: They’re going to need all those arms, because their offense isn’t going to scare too many teams. There’s some power here in Pena, All-Star 3B Evan Longoria and, to a lesser degree, CF B.J. Upton. They’ll get some steals from LF Desmond Jennings and a little bit of everything from infielder-outfielder Ben Zobrist. Either Reid Brignac or Sean Rodriguez could find a home at shortstop.

Almost all of them, though, struggle at the plate in one way or another. There are many holes in Pena’s swing, and Zobrist is streaky.

There’s also some question how they will finish games. Journeyman Kyle Farnsworth ended up with closer’s job in 2011 almost by default, but turned in a solid performance in the role. He’s in the role again, but it wouldn’t take many blown oportunities for Maddon to look at Jake McGee, Joel Peralta or J.P. Howell to assume the closer’s role. Reclamation project Francisco Rodney could contribute, but likely only as a setup man in the 7th or 8th innning.

The Payoff: While they possess certain critical pieces, other teams around them have improved. The MLB futures betting has them in the top third to win the American League pennant and the World Series, but they play in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox. Combine that with their suspect batting, and it’s hard to label them as contenders even with their stellar starters.